November’s election is too close to call. Who expected that 4 years ago? And how are these candidates meeting the moment?
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One of the most indelible memories in recent Florida political history was Gov. Ron DeSantis’ resounding re-election win.
It was seen as a vindication of the “Florida Blueprint.” It kicked off months of speculation that DeSantis was DeFuture of not just Florida, but the conservative movement and American politics itself.
Four years later, the race to succeed him is shaping up to be far closer than the 2022 rout of Charlie Crist, and some polls suggest it could rival the 2018 nail-biter against Andrew Gillum.
While some polls have shown Republican Byron Donalds with a double-digit lead, others show Democrat David Jolly within striking distance.
That’s an especially remarkable development given that registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 1.5 million in a state where DeSantis likened the Florida Democratic Party a few years back to a “dead, rotten carcass.”
Much to Jolly’s chagrin, national support was slow in coming this cycle, which some speculated was because Democratic Socialist Angie Nixon won the U.S. Senate nomination. But as polls stayed tight, the big guns started to show up for the former Republican Congressman, including former President Bill Clinton, U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, Rahm Emanuel and the Rev. Al Sharpton. Meanwhile, former President Barack Obama boosted him with a video endorsement.
Jolly has needed that help and more, given the massive structural advantage Donalds had in terms of fundraising. But Jolly has said his currency isn’t cold cash but voter vexation.
He has likened the current environment to that of 1974: a year when Republicans ran as far as they could from resigned President Richard Nixon after the Watergate scandal. Though Florida voted for Donald Trump three times, Jolly and his sympathizers believe that independents and even many Republicans have had enough of the man from Mar-a-Lago.
Indeed, Jolly has beseeched Trump to come to Florida and campaign for Donalds, and the wish was granted with two rallies during early voting. The first event was announced only after reports that Donalds had de-emphasized the President on his website, with Trump saying Donalds would lose if Donalds “dropped” him.
Rallies with national figures are especially important in this environment given the failure of Jolly and Donalds to agree on a debate schedule, even after both said back in August they wanted multiple debates to happen.
Whoever is ultimately responsible for the logistical failure, Donalds has seemingly succeeded in framing Jolly as ducking him — an ironic position given Donalds’ own refusal to debate opponents ahead of the August Primary.
Even in otherwise friendly interviews, Jolly has had to defend not getting on stage with Donalds. Jolly has said repeatedly that there is no point in debating a “liar” and that he doesn’t want to contribute to the “toxicity” of the political environment.
Donalds argues that his Democratic opponent is a “fraud” and “knows that if he’s on a debate stage with me, that fraud will be exposed to the people of Florida, so he hides.”
In that context, Donalds has attempted to weaponize Jolly’s political evolution. Jolly was once a Republican Congressman and most of his viewpoints at that time aligned with the GOP caucus, until he broke with the party amid the ascendance of Trump.
The campaign has also seen battles over various ethnic cohorts, including one Democrats historically have been able to take for granted.
Donalds, who could be the first Black Governor of the state, has made a concerted play for undecided Black voters. Jolly has accused his opponent of having an “anti-Black agenda” in terms of his legislative priorities in Tallahassee or Washington.
Donalds has some national experience with Black voter outreach, as he went to swing states in 2024 on behalf of Trump to court Black men. It remains to be seen how that translates to this race. A St. Pete Polls survey had Jolly at 65% among Black voters and Donalds at 14%, with 16% undecided, while a Mason-Dixon poll had Jolly at 76% and Donalds at 10%.
Donalds said he wants at least 20% of the Black vote.
“Typically, Republican campaigns don’t do the level of work that we’ve been doing, talking to Black voters,” he said during an event in Pinellas County.
Donalds needs an increased share of the Black vote in part because his support among rural White voters proved to be wobbly back in August. He failed to carry Calhoun, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Hardee, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor, Union and Washington. All of these are rural counties where 94% of GOP voters are White.
While Donalds attributes that underperformance to a crowded field, the question of converting these voters remains open. They could undervote in the Governor’s race, or they could end up crossing over to Jolly.
However, demographics alone don’t determine votes.
Issues also matter. And arguably the defining issue of this campaign, much to Donalds’ frustration, has been that of data centers.
Jolly has pledged a one-year moratorium on the resource-intensive builds and has compelled Donalds, who has earned support from an artificial intelligence super PAC, to recalibrate his position over the course of the campaign.
Whereas once Donalds said that they could be built on Florida’s “pristine” land and that no bans would be coming, the candidate has embraced home rule, letting local governments decide whether to block construction.
Addressing concerns about water usage this month, he suggested that “poopy water” (as in reclaimed sewage) be used for cooling them.
Donalds has sought to define Jolly, a moderate in presentation and platform, as aligning himself with the left flank of the Democratic Party. The socialism attack plays well in South Florida historically, as it is seen to trigger older exiles from countries where communists took over during the Cold War or later.
Election Day is Nov. 3.
The post As the Ron DeSantis era ends, which direction do Floridians want to go? appeared first on Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..
