NPA voters could act differently than in prior pst-pandemic elections.
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Population growth during the COVID-19 pandemic may have upended Florida’s political landscape, and new voters continue to reshape it.
According to University of South Florida Professor Emerita Susan MacManus, politicians who ignore recent shifts in the electorate may be caught off guard in November.
“A lot of people moving in here were not people that people think about. A lot of people were working-class people with kids that didn’t want lockdowns for their school kids. A lot of young people moved in here and got jobs, a great environment and living,” she told attendees of Florida TaxWatch’s Fiscal Accountability Leadership Summit.
“It brought in a different bank of people and we started seeing the transition a little bit of working class over to the Republicans.”
But she said those voters who moved over due to economic conditions could shift the ground again. Largely non-political voters who once bought into the “Free State of Florida” message of 2020 now feel unhappy with inflation and high gas prices.
“The fastest-growing group that’s really caught a lot of people’s attention because it’s a big part of the Democrats’ strategy this time is a group called the NPA, the no-party-affiliation,” MacManus said.
Those voters now rival Florida Democrats in sheer numbers, she said, but could also provide the difference Democrats may need in certain district and statewide races.
About 41% of Florida voters, as of the closing of voter rolls for the General Election, are now Republicans, compared with 30% Democrat and 24% NPA. The remainder belong to one of 15 minor parties recognized by the state.
In 2024, Republicans overperformed with many traditionally Democratic groups, most notably Hispanic voters, but MacManus noted that Republicans always did better among that vote in part because Florida’s Hispanic population is so diverse itself.
“Florida’s Hispanic population is far different than one in Texas or New Mexico or California,” she said.
While Mexican Americans dominate the Latino vote in border states, the largest group of Hispanic voters in Florida is Cuban Americans, about 1.8 million, followed by Puerto Ricans at 1.3 million.
Notably, Cubans have long been a reliably Republican voter bloc, while Puerto Ricans traditionally lean Democratic.
Mexican Americans in Florida rank at No. 3 on the list of Hispanic subsets with under 790,000 registered to vote.
But Colombian, Venezuelan, Dominican, Guatemalan, Nicaraguan, Honduran, and Peruvian Americans represent well over 100,000 voters, and each forms a distinct community with its own voting preferences.
MacManus noted that for many who migrate to the U.S., party loyalties don’t come with the move.
Puerto Ricans, all American citizens eligible to vote immediately, traditionally divide on the island between statehood supporters and opponents, and don’t always understand the differences between Republican and Democratic platforms in the continental U.S., she said.
Less discussed than the Florida Hispanic vote, Black voters in Florida represent the most diverse cross-section of that group in the country, MacManus said.
African Americans make up the largest group, with more than 1.3 million voters; the state also has nearly 585,000 Haitian American voters and about 266,000 Jamaican Americans.
Asian populations also show significant diversity and political differences. Vietnamese Americans tend to act as a Republican voting bloc while Indian Americans tend to vote Democratic, she said.
“This is, again, the danger of saying I’m going after the Latino vote or I’m going after the Black vote, I’m going after the Asian vote,” she said. “Well, guess what? You’ve got to figure out how you’re going to reach these different groups and which one you should bother to spend money on if you’re really tight on funds, or go visit or whatever else.”
Meanwhile, there are more ways to reach into communities than ever, and different age groups often consume political media in entirely different ways.
Young voters may catch TikTok messages while older voters still get messaging in the mail. Podcasts were hot two years ago and feel like “old news” now, she said, but new platforms like livestreamers are constantly changing how to reach swaths of the electorate.
“Text messages? Now people hate them,” she said. “Substack is a really good place for thoughtful people to post things, but 99% of what works this time out is videos.”
She also spoke at length about the importance of reaching younger voters, who have less party loyalty than older voters but are increasingly rivaling them in size.
About 47% of Baby Boomers and 50% of the Silent Generation in Florida are registered Republican, while Democrats make up 32% and 37% of those groups respectively.
But among Gen Z voters, only 33% are Republican, 30% are Democrat, and 30% are NPA. Among Millennials, 36% are Republican, but NPAs and Democrats each represent a near-equal 30% of the population.
That matters long term, as those two younger generations make up 38% of all Florida voters. Silent and Baby Boomer voters represent a combined 31%.
MacManus also discussed how gender makeup differs substantially between the parties. Women now make up 61% of Florida Democrats, and men make up 37%, something MacManus said helped Angie Nixon win the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
Among Florida Republicans, the party is more balanced, with men and women each making up about 49%; the remainder are voters who don’t identify their gender in voter registrations.
But Republican women still outnumber Democratic women. About 39% of all women in Florida are Republican, compared with 35% Democrat, 23% NPA, and 4% minor parties.
At the same time, 46% of men in Florida register Republican, with 25% Democratic, 25% NPA, and the remaining 4% in other groups.
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