Misgivings about federal immigration policies haven’t translated into opposition to Republicans.
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Republican Byron Donalds holds an 8-percentage-point advantage over Democrat David Jolly in the Governor’s race, though the contest looks markedly different among Latino voters, a new N+ Univision poll shows.
Donalds leads Jolly 50% to 42% statewide, with 7% of voters undecided. Among Latino voters, however, Jolly leads 48% to 43%, with 9% of voters on the proverbial fence — a split that could be attributable to federal immigration enforcement they believe has become too aggressive.
Republicans also lead in Florida’s other major federal contests. The GOP holds a 9-point advantage among all voters in the U.S. Senate contest between Republican incumbent Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon, and a 5-point edge in U.S. House races.
Latino voters favor Democrats 48% to 44% in House contests, while their Senate preferences are nearly even, with Democrats ahead 45% to 44%.
President Donald Trump’s immigration policies have shaped the political divide. Fifty-five percent of Latino respondents believe the activities of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have exceeded appropriate limits. That includes 32% who supported stronger border security but object to the administration’s subsequent enforcement measures and 23% who believe the border situation was exaggerated in the first place.
The concerns cross Latino ethnic backgrounds. Fifty-four percent of Cuban voters and 56% of Puerto Rican and South American voters say enforcement has gone too far.
Further, 41% of Latino respondents worry they or someone close to them could be detained, stopped or otherwise affected by ICE operations, compared with 27% of Florida voters overall.
Meanwhile, 44% of all voters statewide believe enforcement has become excessive, while 25% say authorities haven’t gone far enough and 24% consider the current approach appropriate.
But misgivings about Trump’s immigration policies haven’t turned Latino voters against Republicans en masse. Among Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024, pollsters found a whopping 84% support Donalds, whose enforcement views are largely in lockstep with the President’s.
Most Floridians are also dissatisfied with the economy, and they blame Trump.
Statewide, 63% disapprove of Trump’s handling of living expenses, while 68% disapprove of his handling of gasoline prices.
Among Latinos, both figures are at 70%.
More broadly, 57% of Florida voters believe the economy is deteriorating, compared with 21% who see improvement.
Among Latinos, those figures are 60% and 20%, respectively.
Political allegiances have also shifted since the 2024 Presidential Election. Among statewide respondents whose political views have changed, 27% identify Trump’s actions as President as the primary reason, more than any other single response. Another 19% cite inflation and everyday expenses.
Twenty-three percent of all Florida respondents say they’ve become more supportive of Democrats since 2024, compared with 22% who have moved toward Republicans. Another 11% have soured on both parties.
Among Latino voters, 26% have moved toward Democrats and 24% toward Republicans.
The Latino electorate, however, is hardly unified. Cuban voters favor Donalds over Jolly 51% to 42%, while Puerto Rican voters prefer Jolly 51% to 35%.
The findings suggest that while Republicans retain a statewide advantage, Democrats can capitalize on dissatisfaction with immigration practices and affordability heading into the General Election.
London-headquartered YouGov surveyed 825 registered Florida voters and a separate sample of 937 registered Latino voters Oct. 2-15.
Both samples had a roughly 4-point margin of error at a 95% confidence level. Pollsters weighted respondents’ answers to reflect voter demographics and electoral history.
The post Poll: Byron Donalds, Ashley Moody lead Florida races despite Latino unease over ICE raids appeared first on Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..
