The listings site’s own estimate found eliminating property taxes would lift home values 7% to 9%, with first-time buyers paying the difference.
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Florida Realtors is bankrolling Amendment 3 and pitching the property tax cut as relief for Floridians priced out of homeownership. The Senior Economist at Realtor.com, the listings site that operates under license from the group’s national parent, says cutting property taxes pushes home prices higher and makes it harder for first-time buyers to get in.
In a new piece, Realtor.com’s Tristan Navera reports that the site has estimated Florida home values would jump 7% to 9% almost immediately if property taxes were eliminated, adding $200 billion to $250 billion to the aggregate value of the state’s housing stock.
Realtor.com Senior Economist Joel Berner, who produced the estimate, says the gain would come at the expense of first-time buyers, who would face higher prices. “It would be a boon to existing property owners,” Berner said when the analysis was released in 2025.
The estimate models full elimination, which is further than Amendment 3 goes. The amendment raises the homestead exemption on non-school property taxes from roughly $51,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, with inflation adjustments starting in 2029. Gov. Ron DeSantis has said that would wipe out non-school property taxes for about 60% of homesteaded owners.
Realtor.com presented the price estimate as the catch for buyers if the amendment passes.
The mechanism is capitalization. When the annual cost of owning a home falls, buyers can carry a larger mortgage on the same monthly budget, and sellers price to meet them. The savings show up in the sale price, and whoever owns the home when the cut takes effect captures the difference.
Florida Realtors has put $18 million into Vote Yes on 3, every dollar the committee reported raising through Sept. 25, beginning with a $10 million contribution the first week of September. The two committees opposing the amendment, Vote No on 3 Florida and Floridians for Shared Prosperity, reported a combined $537,357 over the same period.
The association, which counts nearly 240,000 members, has built its campaign on cost of living. “Affordability is on the forefront for every Floridian, and they need meaningful relief,” Florida Realtors President Chuck Bonfiglio Jr. said when the group announced its support.
CEO Margy Grant has estimated the average homeowner would save about $1,000 in 2027 and $1,800 in 2028. In a webinar for members this month, Tallahassee tax attorney French Brown laid out the group’s case: school taxes are untouched, Save Our Homes and portability stay in place, and the amendment requires local governments to direct remaining property tax revenue to public safety and infrastructure.
The residency rules shape who benefits. Anyone with a Florida primary residence on Dec. 31, 2026, qualifies for the full exemption, including renters who buy later. People who move to the state after that date get the current exemption of roughly $51,000 for four years and the larger one in year five. Renters who keep renting get no homestead relief.
The amendment also cuts the annual cap on assessment increases for non-homestead property, including rentals, second homes, commercial buildings and vacant land, from 10% to 5%, a change Florida Realtors says gives owners and their tenants more predictable tax bills.
DeSantis wanted a $250,000 exemption right away, a path to $500,000 and school taxes included. The Legislature scaled it back in a June Special Session and passed HJR 1-F with school levies carved out.
State economists at the Revenue Estimating Conference project local governments would lose about $5 billion in the first year and close to $12 billion a year by 2031. The Florida Sheriffs Association says it is “significantly concerned.”
The Florida State Fraternal Order of Police, Florida Professional Firefighters, and the Florida Fire Chiefs Association oppose it, as do the Florida League of Cities, the Florida Association of Counties, and Florida TaxWatch. Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd and Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri called it a “train wreck“ at a September news conference.
The candidates to succeed DeSantis split on it. Republican Byron Donalds supports the amendment, has questioned the state economists’ loss estimates, and wants a mechanism to replace what Police and Fire Departments lose. Democrat David Jolly opposes it and has said he favors a first-time homebuyer exemption instead. DeSantis said last month he doesn’t know whether it clears the 60% threshold.
A St. Pete Polls survey in October put support at 42% with just under a quarter of voters undecided. A Pioneer Institute survey released the previous month found 74%.
Opponents have been circulating the Realtor.com estimate. “Realtors work off of a commission-driven business model, and that involves one thing and one thing only: having more real estate transactions at higher prices,” Vote No on 3 spokesperson Edie Ousley told Action News Jax.
Asked by the station about the study, Florida Realtors sent a statement restating its case: “At its core, this amendment is about helping Florida families afford to buy, own, and keep a home in Florida.” The statement did not address the price estimate.
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Ed. note: This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review were performed by Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team.
The post Realtor.com economist’s price warning complicates Florida Realtors’ affordability case for Amendment 3 appeared first on Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..
