The homestead exemption increase loses more than 20% of its support when likely voters learn of consequences to decreased funding.
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A new poll from the conservative James Madison Institute finds that Amendment 3 enjoys broad support among voters—at least when the potential consequences are not fully explained.
But when voters are given more information about what the amendment would mean in practice, support drops below the 60% threshold required for constitutional amendments to pass in Florida.
When the proposal is presented without mention of tradeoffs, 74% of registered voters and 76% of likely voters say they support the measure, which would raise the homestead exemption to $250,000 by 2028. Nearly half — 44% — say they strongly support it.
Support crosses party lines in the initial framing: 89% of Republicans, 64% of independents, and 59% of Democrats say they would vote yes when the measure is described without reference to difficult choices for local governments.
The picture changes when voters are told about what the James Madison Institute calls ‘tradeoffs’ — for example, that cities and counties might have to cut services or seek new sources of funding.
Even with those tradeoffs, 55% of likely voters say the cuts are worth it, while 38% are opposed.
Among registered voters, the numbers are similar: 55% support the proposal, while 36% are opposed.
Once the consequences are spelled out, Republican support falls to 70%. Support among voters with no party affiliation drops to 50%, and among Democrats, just 36% remain in favor.
This is not the first time a statewide survey has found that support for Amendment 3 drops sharply when voters are given more information.
A University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab poll showed 61% support for the proposal when voters weren’t made aware of effects, but only 45% in favor when people learned that $11.86 billion in revenue would be removed from local budgets — a figure derived from the Florida Legislature’s nonpartisan Office of Economic and Demographic Research.
The UNF poll, unlike the JMI poll, presented the specific amount of potential revenue reduction.
While Republican candidates continue to back the proposal, some of the most vocal opposition now comes from public safety organizations.
The Florida Sheriffs Association (FSA), the Florida State Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) and the Florida Professional Firefighters all have said the proposal would cut vital services and imperil funding for emergency response.
Even as police and fire unions line up against the measure, the final wording that voters will see in November remains uncertain after a court ruling this week.
Leon County Circuit Judge David Frank declared the ballot title and summary for Amendment 3 “clearly and conclusively defective.”
The amendment will remain on the ballot for now, but Attorney General James Uthmeier has 10 days to revise the language. On Tuesday, he said his team was ‘taking a hard look’ at the ruling, either to address the defect or possibly to appeal.
Among Frank’s issues with the proposal: a ballot summary that endorses the amendment and amounts to “political rhetoric.”
Frank also objects to claims that the amendment protects core services, safeguards small businesses and ensures “fairness for Florida residents.”
Frank’s ruling caps three consolidated lawsuits brought by the nonprofit Save Our Voters From Misleading Ballot Language, former Stuart Mayor Thomas Campenni, former Key Biscayne Mayor Michael Davey, former South Miami Mayor Philip Stoddard, former Democratic U.S. Rep. Al Lawson and former Republican state Sen. Jeff Brandes.
The survey of 1,400 Florida registered voters was conducted July 20–26, 2026, by Targoz Market Research. The margin of error is +/- 2.62%.
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