Florida voters — especially women, young voters, Democrats and independents — disapprove of the way ICE is handling its job, a University of North Florida poll found.
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Floridians likely to vote in this year’s midterm elections are deeply divided over President Donald Trump’s handling of immigration, polling shows, and a majority disapproves of the way ICE is handling its job.
The University of North Florida poll found likely midterm election voters were split evenly, with 48% approval and 49% disapproval of the Trump administration’s handling of immigration, one of his signature policy priorities.
The overall numbers somewhat obscure the depth of feeling on both sides; 33% of Florida voters strongly approve of the way the Trump administration is handling immigration and 41% strongly disapprove.
The views of Florida’s no party affiliation/independent voters — a critical voting bloc that can swing elections — are striking. The poll found 60% of no party independents disapprove (49% strongly) and 36% approve (20% strongly) of the Trump administration’s handling of immigration.
Sean Freeder, a University of North Florida political scientist and director of the Public Opinion Research Lab, that is a political warning sign for Republicans as the midterm elections approach.
“If I was a Republican right now, being 25 points underwater (among NPA/independents) on Trump’s signature issue of immigration … it would make me nervous,” he said.
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The poll conducted by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab was released Wednesday, the day before Trump fired the chief implementer of his administration’s immigration policy, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.
Almost none of the Floridians surveyed had no opinion on the question of Trump administration immigration policy. Just 3% said they didn’t know or didn’t answer.
The poll showed significant differences between Democrats and Republicans and large gender and age gaps:
— Among Democrats, 80% strongly disapproved and 9% somewhat disapproved for a total disapproval of 89%.
— Among Republicans, 62% strongly approved and 22% somewhat approved for a total of 83%. (Because of rounding, total percentages are sometimes different than the sum of their parts.)
— Among men, 58% approved of Trump’s handling of immigration. Among women, 57% disapproved.
— Among voters 55 and older, 54% approved of the administration’s handling of immigration; 69% of voters 18-34 disapproved.
Trump effect
The net negative view of Trump administration immigration policy was 1 percentage point. Disapproval of the way Immigrations and Customs Enforcement is handling its job is higher — 13 percentage points.
For all voters surveyed, 55% said they disapproved of the way ICE is handling its job and 42% disapproved. As with the overall immigration policy question, just 3% said they didn’t know or didn’t answer.
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Strong disapproval (48%) was far greater than strong approval (27%).
ICE has been receiving intense blowback for the way it has rounded up and treated people who are, or are suspected of, being in the U.S. illegally, and the turmoil that accompanied massive immigration enforcement this year in Minnesota.
Freeder said the higher disapproval for the ICE question could be because the immigration policy question included Trump’s name and the ICE question didn’t.
Freeder said that may have meant some answers to that question reflected respondents’ overall views of Trump. Supporting that possibility, he said, is that the views of the Trump administration’s handling of immigration (48% approve; 49% disapprove) closely tracked voters’ overall views of Trump (45% favorable; 48% unfavorable.)
“When we ask people about Trump’s handling of immigration, it’s pretty similar to Trump’s numbers,” Freeder said.
“When we ask people (about ICE) without using Trump’s name, all of a sudden we go down to a negative 15.” He said people, including Republicans, are more critical “when Trump’s name is not on the table.”
ICE details
Women’s assessments of ICE were overwhelmingly negative, with 33% approving and 62% disapproving — which is negative 29 points. Men approved of ICE 53% to 45% — a net positive of 8 percentage points.
Younger voters, age 18-34, 76% disapproved of ICE. For voters 55 and older, 49% disapproved.
Democratic disapproval was overwhelming. Republican approval was extremely high, but not as lopsided as Democratic disapproval.
Among Democrats 92% disapproved, including 88% who strongly disapproved.
Among Republicans, 78% approved, including 54% who strongly approved. Republican disapproval stood at 19%, including 14% who strongly disapproved.
No party affiliation/independent voters were also opposed to the way ICE does its job.
Among NPA/independent voters, 69% disapproved, 57% strongly. About a quarter of independents approved, split between somewhat and strong approval.
Driver’s licenses
With nationwide attention on immigration enforcement, elected officials who favor cracking down have advocated for more restrictions on drivers, including in Florida.
The poll found broad support — 61%-37% — for a policy rolled out last month that requires people to take all Florida driver’s exams for knowledge and skills in English. Previously exams could be given in other languages.
The policy change was implemented by the state Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles, run by an executive director picked by Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Strongest support for the policy comes from Republicans (84%). No party affiliation/independent voters support the idea 60%-40%. Among Democrats, 66% are opposed.
Men are far more supportive (70%) of the policy than women (54%).
There is also a significant age gap. Voters 18-34 are split, 48% in support and 49% opposed. Voters 55 and older support the policy, 65%-33%.
Overall concern
Immigration enforcement, and control of U.S. borders, was a pillar of Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, and helped convince many people to vote for him.
It’s not a top-tier issue in early 2026.
Affordability was cited as the top issue by 50% of people surveyed. Immigration was cited as the most important problem facing Florida today by just 8% of Florida voters, in third place behind political division and polarization at 12%.
Fine print
The poll of 786 likely Florida midterm election voters was conducted by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab.
The poll, which used live callers for interviews by phone and online surveys distributed by text message, was conducted Feb. 21 through March 2.
The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points for the full survey.
However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans and Democrats, men and women, and younger and older voters, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.
Political writer Anthony Man can be reached at [email protected] and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.
