David Jolly leads 58% to 38% among Floridians who have already voted.
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Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 48% to 46% in a new St. Pete Polls survey of the Governor’s race for Florida Politics.
It is the first time in three surveys by the pollster that either candidate has led by more than a tenth of a point. The sample assumes an electorate 12 points more Republican than Democratic. Ballots cast through Tuesday morning are less than a point apart.
Another 3% picked someone else and 3% are undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, and Donalds’ lead is inside it.
Republicans hold a registration advantage of roughly 1.5 million voters over Democrats, nearly 5.69 million to almost 4.15 million at the Oct. 5 book closing, with another 3.35 million registered to no party. That is R+8 on the rolls. The poll’s sample is R+12.
St. Pete Polls’ mid-September survey had Donalds at 44% and Jolly at 43%, a tenth of a point apart before rounding. Its Oct. 5-7 survey had them tied at 45%, again a tenth of a point apart. Undecided voters have gone from 9% to 7% to 3% across the three polls. Donalds is up 3 points since the October survey and Jolly is up 1. That movement sits inside the margin of error of either poll.
Forty-six percent of respondents said they had already voted. Jolly leads that group 58% to 38%. Donalds leads the 54% who still plan to vote 57% to 34%. In the unweighted sample, 55% of Democrats said they had already voted. Among Republicans, 39% had.
As of Tuesday morning, 1,257,198 Republicans and 1,244,432 Democrats had cast ballots by mail or at early voting sites, per the Division of Elections. That is a Republican edge of 12,766 votes out of 3.15 million cast, four-tenths of a point. Democrats lead the mail vote 643,143 to 529,943. Republicans lead in-person early voting 727,255 to 601,289. At the same point in 2022, Republicans led Democrats in ballots cast by about 177,000.
Reweighted to an R+10 electorate, the same responses produce a 47% to 46% race. At R+9 it is a tie, and at the registration split Jolly is ahead by a point.
Jolly leads independents 56% to 34%, up from 49% to 33% in the October survey. Donalds holds 81% of Republicans and Jolly holds 81% of Democrats. Each takes about 14% of the other party.
Voters 70 and older back Donalds 65% to 31%. Jolly leads every younger group: 60% to 30% among voters under 30, 54% to 37% among those 30 to 49, and 49% to 45% among those 50 to 69.
Donalds leads the Tampa market 52% to 43% and Fort Myers 62% to 35%. Miami and West Palm Beach are tied at 47% apiece, and Orlando is within a point.
The University of North Florida’s survey released last week had Donalds ahead 49% to 47%.
St. Pete Polls surveyed 916 likely voters Oct. 25-27 for Florida Politics, using automated phone calls for 71% of responses and peer-to-peer text messages for 29%. Respondents were drawn at random from the state’s registered voter file as of Oct. 14. Results were weighted by political party, race, age, gender, and media market to match Florida’s active voter population.
The weighted sample is 43% Republican, 31% Democratic, and 27% other. Voters who said they do not plan to vote in the General Election were excluded. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
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Ed. note: This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review were performed by Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team.
The post Final St. Pete Polls: Byron Donalds leads David Jolly 48% to 46%, as long as Republicans show up appeared first on Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..
