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The Democratic National Committee’s long-awaited “autopsy” of the 2024 Presidential Election doesn’t touch much on the Sunshine State, which has been left for dead throughout the last few electoral cycles.
But the report does suggest that Florida, which could see 24 of its 28 seats go Republican this November if projections prove true, will be an even more reliable state for GOP gains after decennial redistricting in the wake of the 2030 census.
Drawing on an analysis from the Brennan Center, the report authored by political consultant Paul Rivera shows Florida with four more seats in six years.
This would be part of a larger shift from Democratic strongholds like California, New York and Illinois to Republican-performing Texas, Florida, Utah and Idaho.
“With radical midterm redistricting efforts underway, the writing is on the wall, and the call is coming from inside the House,” Rivera quipped.
It is unclear whether the analysis restricted the parameters around such “radical” moves to GOP redraws or not. Republicans, including Gov. Ron DeSantis and GOP gubernatorial front-runner Byron Donalds, have pointed out Democratic partisan redistricting has happened long before Florida’s recent efforts.
Florida had a 15-12 map as recently as the 2020 election, before the DeSantis administration pushed through a much more partisan map that led to a 20-8 GOP advantage in the Florida delegation after the last two congressional elections.
As further indication that Democrats see Florida as a lost cause, Rivera only referred to the state in passing two other times in the 192 page postmortem. He alluded to Bill Nelson’s loss in 2018’s Senate race, and bemoaned Florida’s “aggressive partisan” gerrymander of 2022.
Ahead of last month’s redistricting, Democrats said they are investing in flipping congressional seats in the state this cycle.
Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York said the House Majority PAC was putting $20 million into Florida races.
Jeffries said U.S. Reps. Kat Cammack, Mario Díaz-Balart, Carlos Giménez, Laurel Lee, Anna Paulina Luna, Brian Mast, Cory Mills and Maria Elvira Salazar were among the targeted legislators.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee listed four GOP-held seats in Florida as “Districts in Play”: those represented by Lee, Luna, Mills and Salazar. The House Majority PAC previously said in December 2024 it would target Luna and recruit against Giménez, Lee, Mills and Salazar.
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