Legislators are expected to convene later this month for a rare mid-decade reapportionment.
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A new survey from Emerson College shows Floridians would prefer not to have the state’s Congressional map redrawn, despite a Special Session being called to do just that.
But Republicans are more on board with the Gov. Ron DeSantis priority than other likely voters.
“Perception of potential redistricting is fairly split even within the parties: Republican voters think a redraw is a good idea at 57% and Democrats think it is a bad idea at 65%, similar to independent voters, who oppose 64% to 36%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling said.
The Special Session will begin 12:00 p.m., Monday, April 20, and extend no later than 11:59 p.m., Friday, April 24, to consider legislation relating to a new congressional map and to allocate money for any legal challenges that may result.
An expected Supreme Court decision in Louisiana v. Callais, which DeSantis believes will invalidate minority-access districts and necessitate a new map affecting the 2026 cycle, was the stated reason for the Special Session when it was called back in January. But with less than three weeks before commencement, that decision has yet to be rendered.
DeSantis said this week that “some window of opportunity beyond that” exists to draw a new map given the filing deadline for candidates is during the second week of June. But the later the Special Session is, the more challenges are created for candidates.
The state currently has a 20-8 Republican advantage in the congressional delegation, with a map the Governor’s Office drew and convinced the Legislature into voting up after he vetoed its first work product. DeSantis previously credited that map, enacted in 2022 as part of the regular decennial reapportionment based on Census data, with the current GOP majority in the U.S. House.
He is confident the map could further favor Republicans, noting Florida’s “population has changed so much in the last four or five years.”
DeSantis previously said he thought Florida could have as many as five more seats under maps he said “gypped” the state in favor of “blue states” that he believes count “illegal aliens” as part of the metric. But President Donald Trump’s administration did not move to give Florida more seats, lawmakers with 28 to dole out.
A new map could push the GOP advantage further.
Potential Democratic targets include Florida’s 9th Congressional District in Orlando, represented currently by U.S. Rep. Darren Soto, and Florida’s 14th Congressional District in Tampa, represented by U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor.
Several South Florida seats could also be in flux, including Florida’s 20th Congressional District, where U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick serves, and Florida’s 22nd, 23rd and 24th Congressional Districts, represented by U.S. Reps. Lois Frankel, Jared Moskowitz and Frederica Wilson, respectively.
Yet Republican legislators worry an aggressive map could leave them vulnerable in what appears to be a potential blue wave election for Democrats in the wake of March Special Elections that flipped a state Senate seat and a state House seat to Democrats.
U.S. Reps. Mario Díaz-Balart, Carlos Giménez, Greg Steube, and Daniel Webster are among those who worry an aggressive map will put their seats in play.
Republicans cling to a 217-214 advantage in the current Congress. And with Democrats anticipating a potential wave election, GOP-controlled states like Florida are working to firm up where they can, even if some say it’s a risky play.
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